These forecasts are living documents that are used as planning tools for school districts and communities. They are a five-year projection of school district operational revenues and expenditures, which are based upon a snap shot of today that has been adjusted to reflect all known activities of the future along with certain assumptions and predictions of what may happen.
O.R.C. and O.A.C. Requirements
O.R.C. §5705.391 and O.A.C. 3301-92-04 require a Board of Education (BOE) to submit a five-year projection of operational revenues and expenditures along with assumptions to the Department of Education prior to October 31 of each fiscal year and to update this forecast between April 1 and May 31 of each fiscal year. ODE encourages school districts to update their forecast whenever events take place that will significantly change the forecast.Required funds to be included in the forecast are:
General funds (001)
Any special cost center associated with general fund money
Emergency levy funds (016)
Any debt service (002) activity that would otherwise have gone to the general fund
Disadvantaged Pupil Impact Aid (DPIA) funds (447)
Poverty Based Assistance (PBA) funds (494)
A note from Moody's Investor Service
"The district’s assumptions/notes in the forecast are as thorough and comprehensive as any I have seen, and as you well know, we spend a lot of time looking at these forecasts. From an analysts' point of view, it is always a pleasure to work with a district that takes the time to spell out how they are arriving at their budgetary projections as opposed to districts that seem to pull numbers from thin air. New Albany's notes are obviously based on solid historical trends and realistic expectations regarding the various revenue sources that the district has no control over and the expenditure items that they do have more control over.”
-Thomas P. Schuette, Analyst, Public Finance Group, Moody's Investors Service
More information:
How to Read a Five Year Forecast Tips and Explanations on Understanding a School District's Forecast from the Ohio Department of Education
